(Bloomberg) — Bond traders are calling time within the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.
The spread between December 2019 and December 2020 eurodollar contracts fell below zero Wednesday in my ballet shoes, suggesting short-end traders don’t expect the central bank to boost loan rates by any means after pick up. In fact, they’re giving slightly better odds that the Fed eases policy above the span rather then tightening it.
The spread’s use negative territory is a culmination of your trend months while in the making as investors bring forward their expectations for when America’s economic expansion — and then the Fed’s tightening cycle — can easily. It contrasts with recent review of economic projections, which demonstrates the majority of officials don’t be surprised to hike rates one or two times in 2020.
The divergence between trader and policy maker expectations is partly a product of contrasting views on whether productivity gains will drive further growth, based on TD Securities rates strategist Gennadiy Goldberg.
“The Fed expects productivity to pick up gradually during the future, raising the neutral rate,” said Goldberg. “The industry looks like it’s taking an ‘I’ll believe it as i see it’ approach.”
Fed funds futures suggest about three basis points of policy tightening in 2020, in line with data authored by Bloomberg. Eurodollar futures imply about 40 more basis points of policy tightening in 2010, should FRA-OIS remain stable, and 33 more basis points in 2019, the details show.